PulseScope Correlation Study

🎯

Best Composite Correlation

T+20

ρ = -0.0374 (p = 0.0001)

🏆

Cross-Ticker Spread (T+20)

1.3%

Win Rate: 60% · Long top / Short bottom

⚡

Strongest Component

Fundamental Trend

ρ = 0.1983 at T+20

💰

Best Score Level

Strong Bull (70+)

+$86.37 per $1K at T+20

📖 Quick Translation (ELI5 Glossary)

Because data science terms can be confusing, here is what this report actually means:

Spearman / Pearson (Correlation): A score from -1 to 1. 1 means the score perfectly predicts the price going up. 0 means it's a random guess. -1 means the score predicts the exact opposite.
p-value (p=): The chance this result is just pure luck. We want this to be below 0.05.
Observations (n): The number of times we saw this matching pattern in our dataset.
T+1, T+5, etc.: Trading days. "T+5 Return" is what the stock did 5 trading days (about 1 week) later.
Score up crosses MA: Our bullish signal where the score breaks above its own 7-day average.
Low score + 10pt rise: "Recovery Buy", the score was in the dumps (<50), but suddenly jumped 10 points.
N/A Values: You will see N/A if there wasn't enough historical data recorded to test a specific scenario (common for newer metrics like Fundamental Trend).

1. Composite Score → Forward Returns

Does a higher PulseScore today predict higher returns?

Horizon	Spearman ρ	p-value	Pearson r	Observations	Per-Ticker Mean ρ
T+1 —	-0.0042	0.6254	-0.0042	13502	-0.0156
T+5 ✅	-0.0254	0.0039	-0.0159	12902	-0.0832
T+10 ✅	-0.0205	0.0235	-0.0099	12183	-0.1042
T+20 ⭐️ ✅	-0.0374	0.0001	-0.0081	10753	-0.1713

2. Component Predictive Power

Which sub-scores carry the most alpha?

Component	T+1	T+5	T+10	T+20
Short Squeeze	-0.0045	-0.0083	0.0090	0.0192
Technical Momentum	0.0005	-0.0422	-0.0309	-0.0623
Fundamental Trend	-0.0228	-0.0513	-0.1140	-0.1983
Broad Sentiment	0.0401	0.0858	0.1126	0.0847
Event Risk	-0.0057	-0.0288	-0.0844	-0.0982
Macro	0.0268	0.0084	0.0090	-0.0863

3. Score Level → ROI

$1K invested at each score level — what do you make?

Score Level	Count	T+1 Avg	T+5 Avg	T+10 Avg	T+20 Avg	Best Win Rate	Best P&L ($1K)
Bearish (<30)	4503	+0.19%	+0.94%	+1.84%	+3.76%	54.6% (T+20)	+$37.60 (T+20)
Cautious (30-50)	7048	+0.12%	+0.63%	+1.49%	+3.19%	51.2% (T+10)	+$31.91 (T+20)
Bullish (50-70)	2016	+0.17%	+0.42%	+0.94%	+1.82%	51.2% (T+1)	+$18.17 (T+20)
Strong Bull (70+)	85	+0.57%	+0.51%	+2.71%	+8.64%	60.0% (T+20)	+$86.37 (T+20)

4. Score Change Momentum

Do big score jumps predict price moves?

Score Change	Count	T+1 Avg	T+5 Avg	T+10 Avg	T+20 Avg	Best Win Rate	Best P&L ($1K)
Big Drop (<= -4.0)	3015	+0.08%	+0.38%	+1.65%	+3.22%	51.2% (T+20)	+$32.23 (T+20)
Drop (> -4.0 to <= 0.0)	5519	+0.15%	+0.72%	+1.39%	+3.02%	52.6% (T+10)	+$30.25 (T+20)
Rise (> 0.0 to <= 4.0)	2457	+0.03%	+0.84%	+1.48%	+3.02%	52.8% (T+20)	+$30.24 (T+20)
Big Rise (> 4.0)	2511	+0.34%	+0.88%	+1.66%	+3.91%	52.4% (T+10)	+$39.11 (T+20)

5. Score Trend Reversal

Low→rising = buy signal, High→falling = sell signal

🟢 Buy Signal (Score ↑ Crosses MA)

Horizon	Count	Avg Return	Win Rate	P&L ($1K)
T+1	1902	+0.26%	51.6%	+$2.55
T+5	1820	+0.72%	50.8%	+$7.19
T+10	1732	+1.39%	51.9%	+$13.91
T+20 ⭐️	1518	+2.99%	50.8%	+$29.89

🔴 Sell Signal (Score ↓ Crosses MA)

Horizon	Count	Avg Return	Drop Rate	Avoided Loss
T+1	2017	+0.13%	48.2%	$-1.29
T+5	1918	+0.64%	49.3%	$-6.36
T+10	1789	+1.57%	46.9%	$-15.74
T+20 ⭐️	1595	+2.95%	48.3%	$-29.47

🔵 Recovery Buy (Low Score + 10pt Rise)

Horizon	Count	Avg Return	Win Rate	P&L ($1K)
T+1	1381	+0.27%	51.3%	+$2.74
T+5	1297	+0.69%	50.7%	+$6.94
T+10	1245	+1.92%	52.7%	+$19.16
T+20 ⭐️	1058	+3.78%	52.3%	+$37.79

🟢 Red to Higher Tier (3 Days < 30, Break Above)

Horizon	Count	Avg Return	Win Rate	P&L ($1K)
T+1	401	+0.24%	49.1%	+$2.38
T+5	377	+1.06%	52.0%	+$10.63
T+10	365	+2.08%	50.7%	+$20.84
T+20 ⭐️	323	+3.53%	55.4%	+$35.31

🔴 Top Tier Drop Sell (3 Days ≥ 70, Drop Below)

Horizon	Count	Avg Return	Drop Rate	Avoided Loss
T+1	4	-0.78%	50.0%	+$7.79
T+5	4	-0.52%	50.0%	+$5.17
T+10	4	+1.90%	25.0%	$-18.98
T+20 ⭐️	4	+9.38%	25.0%	$-93.78

6. Cross-Ticker Ranking (Long/Short)

If we bought the top 20% of tickers daily and shorted the bottom 20%. A positive spread means our top picks beat the bottom picks.

Horizon	Top Quintile	Bottom Quintile	Spread	Win Rate	L/S P&L ($1K)
T+1	+0.12%	+0.27%	-0.15%	54.0%	$-1.53
T+5	+0.75%	+1.09%	-0.34%	49.6%	$-3.40
T+10	+1.73%	+1.71%	+0.02%	51.6%	+$0.23
T+20 ⭐️	+3.80%	+2.51%	+1.29%	60.2%	+$12.95

Score ↔ Price Overlay

Top tickers by data coverage — normalized score vs price

Per-Ticker Correlation Distribution

📋 Recommendations

Increase weight for Fundamental Trend — strongest predictive correlation at T+20 (ρ=0.1983).

Review Short Squeeze — weakest signal (ρ=0.0192) at T+20. Consider reducing weight or improving data quality.

Score reversal buy signal is actionable — 50.8% win rate at T+20. Consider surfacing in the UI.

Strong Bull (70+) is the optimal entry zone — best risk-adjusted T+20 returns.