PulseScope Correlation Study

🎯

Best Composite Correlation

T+20

ρ = -0.0641 (p = 0.0)

🏆

Cross-Ticker Spread (T+20)

-0.1%

Win Rate: 49% · Long top / Short bottom

⚡

Strongest Component

Fundamental Trend

ρ = 0.0754 at T+20

💰

Best Score Level

Strong Bull (70+)

+$73.74 per $1K at T+20

📖 Quick Translation (ELI5 Glossary)

Because data science terms can be confusing, here is what this report actually means:

Spearman / Pearson (Correlation): A score from -1 to 1. 1 means the score perfectly predicts the price going up. 0 means it's a random guess. -1 means the score predicts the exact opposite.
p-value (p=): The chance this result is just pure luck. We want this to be below 0.05.
Observations (n): The number of times we saw this matching pattern in our dataset.
T+1, T+5, etc.: Trading days. "T+5 Return" is what the stock did 5 trading days (about 1 week) later.
Score up crosses MA: Our bullish signal where the score breaks above its own 7-day average.
Low score + 10pt rise: "Recovery Buy", the score was in the dumps (<50), but suddenly jumped 10 points.
N/A Values: You will see N/A if there wasn't enough historical data recorded to test a specific scenario (common for newer metrics like Fundamental Trend).

1. Composite Score → Forward Returns

Does a higher PulseScore today predict higher returns?

Horizon	Spearman ρ	p-value	Pearson r	Observations	Per-Ticker Mean ρ
T+1 —	-0.0106	0.1362	0.0040	19938	-0.0316
T+5 ✅	-0.0404	0.0	-0.0075	19334	-0.0798
T+10 ✅	-0.0509	0.0	-0.0151	18579	-0.1059
T+20 ⭐️ ✅	-0.0641	0.0	-0.0262	17073	-0.1360

2. Component Predictive Power

Which sub-scores carry the most alpha?

Component	T+1	T+5	T+10	T+20
Short Squeeze	-0.0060	-0.0162	-0.0202	-0.0274
Technical Momentum	-0.0093	-0.0446	-0.0569	-0.0572
Fundamental Trend	-0.0126	-0.0298	-0.0602	-0.0754
Broad Sentiment	0.0326	0.0607	0.0811	0.0460
Event Risk	0.0015	-0.0063	-0.0338	-0.0328
Macro	0.0181	-0.0071	-0.0198	-0.0509

3. Score Level → ROI

$1K invested at each score level — what do you make?

Score Level	Count	T+1 Avg	T+5 Avg	T+10 Avg	T+20 Avg	Best Win Rate	Best P&L ($1K)
Bearish (<30)	6296	+0.21%	+1.05%	+1.99%	+3.55%	56.6% (T+20)	+$35.54 (T+20)
Cautious (30-50)	11055	+0.40%	+0.81%	+1.36%	+2.46%	53.0% (T+10)	+$24.59 (T+20)
Bullish (50-70)	2646	+0.12%	+0.31%	+0.52%	+0.95%	51.0% (T+1)	+$9.46 (T+20)
Strong Bull (70+)	92	+0.50%	+0.57%	+2.43%	+7.37%	59.3% (T+20)	+$73.74 (T+20)

4. Score Change Momentum

Do big score jumps predict price moves?

Score Change	Count	T+1 Avg	T+5 Avg	T+10 Avg	T+20 Avg	Best Win Rate	Best P&L ($1K)
Big Drop (<= -4.0)	4659	+0.79%	+1.02%	+1.29%	+2.33%	53.2% (T+10)	+$23.28 (T+20)
Drop (> -4.0 to <= 0.0)	7528	+0.15%	+0.75%	+1.38%	+2.86%	53.9% (T+10)	+$28.61 (T+20)
Rise (> 0.0 to <= 4.0)	3927	+0.07%	+0.78%	+1.31%	+2.49%	54.4% (T+20)	+$24.87 (T+20)
Big Rise (> 4.0)	3824	+0.24%	+0.72%	+1.93%	+2.66%	53.6% (T+10)	+$26.64 (T+20)

5. Score Trend Reversal

Low→rising = buy signal, High→falling = sell signal

🟢 Buy Signal (Score ↑ Crosses MA)

Horizon	Count	Avg Return	Win Rate	P&L ($1K)
T+1	2991	+0.16%	51.5%	+$1.64
T+5	2900	+0.62%	52.6%	+$6.24
T+10	2797	+1.16%	53.4%	+$11.55
T+20 ⭐️	2548	+2.14%	52.6%	+$21.42

🔴 Sell Signal (Score ↓ Crosses MA)

Horizon	Count	Avg Return	Drop Rate	Avoided Loss
T+1	3073	+0.13%	48.4%	$-1.31
T+5	2951	+0.58%	47.9%	$-5.84
T+10	2856	+1.20%	46.1%	$-12.04
T+20 ⭐️	2624	+2.10%	47.0%	$-21.02

🔵 Recovery Buy (Low Score + 10pt Rise)

Horizon	Count	Avg Return	Win Rate	P&L ($1K)
T+1	2274	+0.20%	51.5%	+$2.05
T+5	2183	+0.63%	52.5%	+$6.33
T+10	1983	+2.67%	54.4%	+$26.70
T+20 ⭐️	1757	+2.77%	54.2%	+$27.71

🟢 Red to Higher Tier (3 Days < 30, Break Above)

Horizon	Count	Avg Return	Win Rate	P&L ($1K)
T+1	631	+0.29%	51.5%	+$2.90
T+5	618	+1.15%	56.0%	+$11.46
T+10	571	+1.83%	52.2%	+$18.35
T+20 ⭐️	503	+3.28%	56.7%	+$32.79

🔴 Top Tier Drop Sell (3 Days ≥ 70, Drop Below)

Horizon	Count	Avg Return	Drop Rate	Avoided Loss
T+1	4	-0.78%	50.0%	+$7.79
T+5	4	-0.52%	50.0%	+$5.17
T+10	4	+1.90%	25.0%	$-18.98
T+20 ⭐️	4	+9.38%	25.0%	$-93.78

6. Cross-Ticker Ranking (Long/Short)

If we bought the top 20% of tickers daily and shorted the bottom 20%. A positive spread means our top picks beat the bottom picks.

Horizon	Top Quintile	Bottom Quintile	Spread	Win Rate	L/S P&L ($1K)
T+1	+0.08%	+0.26%	-0.18%	51.7%	$-1.79
T+5	+0.57%	+1.09%	-0.52%	47.2%	$-5.23
T+10	+1.68%	+1.75%	-0.07%	44.4%	$-0.71
T+20 ⭐️	+2.64%	+2.73%	-0.09%	49.1%	$-0.87

Score ↔ Price Overlay

Top tickers by data coverage — normalized score vs price

Per-Ticker Correlation Distribution

📋 Recommendations

Increase weight for Fundamental Trend — strongest predictive correlation at T+20 (ρ=0.0754).

Review Short Squeeze — weakest signal (ρ=0.0274) at T+20. Consider reducing weight or improving data quality.

Score reversal buy signal is actionable — 52.6% win rate at T+20. Consider surfacing in the UI.

Strong Bull (70+) is the optimal entry zone — best risk-adjusted T+20 returns.