PulseScope Correlation Study

🎯

Best Composite Correlation

T+10

ρ = -0.0512 (p = 0.0001)

🏆

Cross-Ticker Spread (T+10)

-0.5%

Win Rate: 46% · Long top / Short bottom

⚡

Strongest Component

Fundamental Trend

ρ = 0.1704 at T+10

💰

Best Score Level

Strong Bull (70+)

+$34.85 per $1K at T+10

📖 Quick Translation (ELI5 Glossary)

Because data science terms can be confusing, here is what this report actually means:

Spearman / Pearson (Correlation): A score from -1 to 1. 1 means the score perfectly predicts the price going up. 0 means it's a random guess. -1 means the score predicts the exact opposite.
p-value (p=): The chance this result is just pure luck. We want this to be below 0.05.
Observations (n): The number of times we saw this matching pattern in our dataset.
T+1, T+5, etc.: Trading days. "T+5 Return" is what the stock did 5 trading days (about 1 week) later.
Score up crosses MA: Our bullish signal where the score breaks above its own 7-day average.
Low score + 10pt rise: "Recovery Buy", the score was in the dumps (<50), but suddenly jumped 10 points.
N/A Values: You will see N/A if there wasn't enough historical data recorded to test a specific scenario (common for newer metrics like Fundamental Trend).

1. Composite Score → Forward Returns

Does a higher PulseScore today predict higher returns?

Horizon	Spearman ρ	p-value	Pearson r	Observations	Per-Ticker Mean ρ
T+1 —	-0.0110	0.3511	-0.0091	7218	-0.0472
T+5 —	-0.0235	0.0529	-0.0085	6762	-0.0911
T+10 ⭐️ ✅	-0.0512	0.0001	-0.0180	6192	-0.1624
T+20 ✅	-0.0380	0.0069	0.0186	5052	-0.2204

2. Component Predictive Power

Which sub-scores carry the most alpha?

Component	T+1	T+5	T+10	T+20
Short Squeeze	-0.0216	0.0204	0.0244	-0.0188
Technical Momentum	-0.0075	-0.0511	-0.1135	-0.0727
Fundamental Trend	-0.0537	-0.0966	-0.1704	-0.1878
Broad Sentiment	0.0590	0.1380	0.0453	-0.0817
Event Risk	-0.0122	-0.0716	-0.1480	-0.0838
Macro	0.0780	0.0510	-0.0557	-0.2550

3. Score Level → ROI

$1K invested at each score level — what do you make?

Score Level	Count	T+1 Avg	T+5 Avg	T+10 Avg	T+20 Avg	Best Win Rate	Best P&L ($1K)
Bearish (<30)	2025	+0.21%	+0.70%	+1.02%	+0.41%	51.1% (T+1)	+$10.23 (T+10)
Cautious (30-50)	3928	+0.10%	+0.30%	+0.18%	-0.73%	50.9% (T+1)	+$3.00 (T+5)
Bullish (50-70)	1312	+0.09%	+0.35%	+0.06%	-0.49%	50.9% (T+1)	+$3.52 (T+5)
Strong Bull (70+)	67	+0.52%	+1.28%	+3.48%	+10.99%	65.6% (T+20)	+$109.90 (T+20)

4. Score Change Momentum

Do big score jumps predict price moves?

Score Change	Count	T+1 Avg	T+5 Avg	T+10 Avg	T+20 Avg	Best Win Rate	Best P&L ($1K)
Big Drop (<= -4.0)	1492	+0.13%	+0.21%	+0.27%	-0.53%	53.2% (T+1)	+$2.71 (T+10)
Drop (> -4.0 to <= 0.0)	3125	+0.13%	+0.41%	+0.65%	+0.60%	50.9% (T+5)	+$6.48 (T+10)
Rise (> 0.0 to <= 4.0)	1381	-0.05%	+0.32%	-0.20%	-2.70%	50.2% (T+1)	+$3.21 (T+5)
Big Rise (> 4.0)	1220	+0.29%	+0.74%	+0.32%	-0.46%	50.7% (T+1)	+$7.42 (T+5)

5. Score Trend Reversal

Low→rising = buy signal, High→falling = sell signal

🟢 Buy Signal (Score ↑ Crosses MA)

Horizon	Count	Avg Return	Win Rate	P&L ($1K)
T+1	1017	+0.21%	51.4%	+$2.12
T+5	945	+0.42%	47.6%	+$4.23
T+10 ⭐️	863	+0.57%	47.9%	+$5.68
T+20	626	-1.50%	37.7%	$-14.95

🔴 Sell Signal (Score ↓ Crosses MA)

Horizon	Count	Avg Return	Drop Rate	Avoided Loss
T+1	1058	+0.26%	45.7%	$-2.62
T+5	975	+0.69%	49.2%	$-6.87
T+10 ⭐️	888	+0.77%	51.1%	$-7.66
T+20	697	-0.37%	56.7%	+$3.69

🔵 Recovery Buy (Low Score + 10pt Rise)

Horizon	Count	Avg Return	Win Rate	P&L ($1K)
T+1	590	+0.24%	51.5%	+$2.43
T+5	518	+0.39%	49.4%	+$3.93
T+10 ⭐️	395	-1.31%	41.0%	$-13.12
T+20	289	-3.92%	37.4%	$-39.23

🟢 Red to Higher Tier (3 Days < 30, Break Above)

Horizon	Count	Avg Return	Win Rate	P&L ($1K)
T+1	188	+0.32%	50.5%	+$3.21
T+5	171	+1.12%	53.8%	+$11.22
T+10 ⭐️	144	+1.05%	51.4%	+$10.49
T+20	93	-1.30%	46.2%	$-13.05

🔴 Top Tier Drop Sell (3 Days ≥ 70, Drop Below)

Horizon	Count	Avg Return	Drop Rate	Avoided Loss
T+1	4	-0.78%	50.0%	+$7.79
T+5	4	-0.52%	50.0%	+$5.17
T+10 ⭐️	4	+1.90%	25.0%	$-18.98
T+20	4	+9.38%	25.0%	$-93.78

6. Cross-Ticker Ranking (Long/Short)

If we bought the top 20% of tickers daily and shorted the bottom 20%. A positive spread means our top picks beat the bottom picks.

Horizon	Top Quintile	Bottom Quintile	Spread	Win Rate	L/S P&L ($1K)
T+1	+0.11%	+0.29%	-0.18%	53.1%	$-1.85
T+5	+0.65%	+1.10%	-0.45%	52.1%	$-4.53
T+10 ⭐️	+1.07%	+1.61%	-0.54%	46.1%	$-5.44
T+20	+2.02%	+1.54%	+0.48%	55.7%	+$4.84

Score ↔ Price Overlay

Top tickers by data coverage — normalized score vs price

Per-Ticker Correlation Distribution

📋 Recommendations

Increase weight for Fundamental Trend — strongest predictive correlation at T+10 (ρ=0.1704).

Review Short Squeeze — weakest signal (ρ=0.0244) at T+10. Consider reducing weight or improving data quality.

Strong Bull (70+) is the optimal entry zone — best risk-adjusted T+10 returns.